The current forecast date is 03 October, showing data until 09 October.
The following Trusts/UTLAs make forecasts of hospital admissions using timeseries forecasts of COVID-19 cases (rather than EpiNow2, by default): Mid And South Essex NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Essex), York Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: North Yorkshire), Harrogate And District NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: North Yorkshire), East Suffolk And North Essex NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Essex), Chesterfield Royal Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Derbyshire), University Hospitals Of North Midlands NHS Trust (UTLA: Staffordshire), Kettering General Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Northamptonshire), Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust (UTLA: Northamptonshire), University Hospitals Of Derby And Burton NHS Foundation Trust (UTLAs: Derbyshire, Staffordshire), Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Lancashire), East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust (UTLA: Lancashire)
The main forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:
covid19.nhs.data)All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 22 August) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.
Note: for clarity, we only show forecasts for Trusts which have admitted five or more patients in the last 7 days.
We derive forecasts of national and regional hospital admissions from the Trust-level admissions. For each of the individual models, the forecast samples are summed to get national/regional forecasts, then summarised into quantile forecasts, and then the ensemble forecast created. These are compared below to forecasts made using EpiNow2.